I enjoyed this exercise, thank you. I took a peek at the findings in terms of the poor accuracy of estimates before taking the quiz (without seeing the answers). I got 8 out of 10 right (but probably would have gotten much less if I hadn’t been clued in to widening my estimates).
I agree with most of the authors conclusions about our tendencies and appreciate that he is encouraging us to acknowledge the uncertainty in our estimates and endeavoring to give a wide enough range to make then accurate instead of arbitrary. The only thing I didn’t agree with was some of the emphasis placed on no one getting 10 out of 10 correct. While taking the test, I continually tasked myself with being 90% “sure” of my answers. This should follow to establishing an average of 9 out of 10 answers correct. Yes, some probably should have gotten 10 correct, but that was not actually the goal. The goal was to be 90% sure, and some variation either way is understandable. Even I would have been capable of getting 10 our of 10 right with broad enough ranges (answer infinity for everything!!!), but all things considered, I am not particularly disappointed with my ultimate performance.