“under all conditions” in the SAE chart actually means “in any weather where public safety people have not closed the roads.”
I have to take Jeff’s side of the bet. I have a Level 2 car, but in reduced-visibilty conditions it reverts to Level 1 adaptive cruise control, or to Level 0 bupkis assistance. If I had a level 5 car without a steering wheel, I’d be shivering in the dark in an unexpected snowstorm. Not acceptable.
I have zero clue when vehicles will be able to drive themselves, I’m really wondering if I’d like what I’ve heard Elon talk about where we don’t have to own cars anymore and we just call a hella CHEAP taxi 
although I’d only perfer it if it’s really cheap.
This would be a very interesting development if it actually did happen but considering the automation of travel would put so many hard working drivers oit of a career it would also be a scary development for where it could lead to
I’ve been taking Waymo in the greater Phoenix for about six months and it’s been great. Here’s a video showing me in one: https://twitter.com/seligerj/status/1747764944945467728/video/1
It’s hard to imagine self-driving cars won’t be common 2030, given where we are now, and the progress being made by Luminar, Mobile Eye, and others.
Interesting bet. I would say, in the United States probably yes, but outside no, since they are overall less willing to restructure their cities around convenience of driving a car. It is a difference I really notice in Auckland (New Zealand) vs. Europe.
It will also be fun to watch the approach to liability. With human drivers, some amount of people get killed in road traffic (that number is in the order of 1 in 10,000 per year in the US), and basically nobody cares. If we, on the other hand, get squeamish about people being killed by machines — self driving cars, then just for that reason, self driving cars will have to drive much more carefully than humans, which crucially often means much slower. Oops. But, car companies are probably good enough at marketing to avoid such scenario.
Also there is rumor that current ‘self driving’ cars are, for all practical intents and purposes, remotely driven over the equivalent of a zoom call.