Here’s a 2025 ChatGPT deep research summary, from 6/1/2025 – the midpoint of the bet..
The 2030 Self‑Driving Car Bet_ Status Update as of 2025.pdf (1.3 MB)
Bottom line: At this midpoint, Atwood appears more likely to win the bet if we go by the cautious consensus and current state of technology.
Carmack’s scenario requires a continuation and acceleration of recent advances – not impossible, especially given the competitive push in the industry, but a lot has to go right in a short time. The next few years will be crucial. If by 2027 we see fully driverless operations scaling to more cities and handling nasty weather, then momentum might swing to Carmack. If instead progress stays incremental and confined (e.g. robo-taxis work only in Sun Belt cities with safety drivers on standby, etc.), then Atwood’s skepticism will look on point. As of mid-2025, the safe bet (no pun intended) leans toward Atwood.
Yet, the race is still very much on – and even Atwood openly wants to be proven wrong. For tech observers, it will be fascinating to watch whether the autonomous vehicle industry can defy the doubters and deliver a genuine Level 5 car by the end of the decade, or whether it will turn out that 2030 was indeed too soon for the self-driving revolution.