Well, asking me to go back in time and revise my previous guess based upon knowledge I didn’t have when I made it is a bit of a tall order
The probability estimates in my head have changed with the new information, but I’m temporally incapable of changing my bet now.
… or do you still think that probability exists anywhere outside of a mind?
You knew one was heads already, so it tells
you nothing about the state of the coins.
Yes it does.
Given coin A and coin B.
With no information, each combination of A and B, heads or tails has a 25% chance of occurring.
At least one is heads - A heads, B tails OR A tails, B heads OR A heads B heads. 33% chance of each, given our new information.
A is heads - A heads, B tails OR A heads, B heads. 50% chance of each, given our new information.
Probability estimates are the result of a mind’s information about the world. Adding to that information will change the probability estimates.