@Chase Seibert

Well, asking me to go back in time and revise my previous guess based upon knowledge I didn’t have when I made it is a bit of a tall order

The probability estimates in my head have changed with the new information, but I’m temporally incapable of changing my bet now.

… or do you still think that probability exists anywhere outside of a mind?

You knew one was heads already, so it tells

you nothing about the state of the coins.

Yes it does.

Given coin A and coin B.

With no information, each combination of A and B, heads or tails has a 25% chance of occurring.

At least one is heads - A heads, B tails OR A tails, B heads OR A heads B heads. 33% chance of each, given our new information.

A is heads - A heads, B tails OR A heads, B heads. 50% chance of each, given our new information.

Probability estimates are the result of a mind’s information about the world. Adding to that information will change the probability estimates.